Notes on winter 2015

Winter Lake Watching. Haven't been able to do this for a few years. This year my proximity to the lake combined with a lack of westward migration has made it easy to keep tabs on the winter wilderness a half mile from my house. The ice keeps growing.

According to the internet;

Between 1973 and 2013 the average ice cover on Lake Ontario ran a little under 20%. But last year it was around 60%. Welcome to the new age of the meandering jet stream and associated “polar vortex” weather factors that many believe are tied to reduced ice cover in the arctic and over all global warming.

Great Lakes ice cover nearly doubled last week between Feb 7 and Feb 15.

It's catching up fast to last year's totals. According to NOAA the usual maximum cover happens between mid Feb and end of the month. NOAA tells us “ Lake Ontario's extreme depth (86 m average; 244 m maximum) translates to tremendous heat storage capacity. It also has a smaller surface area for heat loss. In addition, cold air outbreaks from the northwest and west are moderated by the waters of Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron. These factors combine to keep ice cover on Lake Ontario at a relatively low level most years.”

Lake Ontario satellite photo from Feb 16 shows a big patch floating around in the middle of the lake and lots of solid ice up around Main Duck-Kingston- Prince Edward Bay. Looks like it's at least a third if not more covered now. At this time last year it was 40 % covered. We're close to that now. We topped out at 61.5% last year. Stay tuned.

A Michigan weatherman writes of the spell of light winds contributing to rapid ice build up on his lake.

He might have that right. Feb 16 and Feb 17 were both nearly calm here in North Wolcott. And our thermometer showed a lonely digit of 1 F this am. One is a lonely number here on the south shore. We even dipped negative barely last night. First time we'd seen this. So it might be another tough year for the ducks.